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Construction of an Industry Cycle Indicator for Profitability Prediction Analysis of Aggregate Firms in Bangladesh
ISSN: 2706 - 9346
Publisher: author
Construction of an Industry Cycle Indicator for Profitability Prediction Analysis of Aggregate Firms in Bangladesh
Indexed in
Social Sciences
ARTICLE-FACTOR
1.3
Article Basics Score: 2
Article Transparency Score: 2
Article Operation Score: 2
Article Articles Score: 2
Article Accessibility Score: 3
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International Category Code (ICC):
ICC-0202
Publisher: International Journal Of Social Sciences And Economic Revi..
International Journal Address (IAA):
IAA.ZONE/2706111829346
eISSN
:
2706 - 9346
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Abstract
Purpose of this study: In the aggregate industrial sector, government intervention to influence demand within the economy is generally counterproductive, while the optimal policy is to concentrate on supply-side reforms that help the economy become efficient. The objective of this study was to construct a unique industry cycle indicator for Bangladeshi aggregate firms within this industrial sector. The specific objectives were to assemble a unique industry cycle indicator which recommends early signals of a firm’s industrial vulnerability, identify industry cycle indicator turning points and evaluate the predictive performance of the industry. The industry cycle indicator model demonstrates the macroeconomic fluctuations in the industrial sector. Methodology: The industry cycle indicator was constructed following the approach of the Conference Board (2000). The result wasthen tested for robustness with a macro-stress test. Lagged inde...
