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POSSIBILITIES OF THE LONG-RANGE INFLOW FORECAST TO THE BUREYSKAYA RESERVOIR
ISSN: 2686 - 8385
Publisher: author
POSSIBILITIES OF THE LONG-RANGE INFLOW FORECAST TO THE BUREYSKAYA RESERVOIR
Indexed in
Earth and Environmental Sciences
ARTICLE-FACTOR
1.3
Article Basics Score: 3
Article Transparency Score: 3
Article Operation Score: 3
Article Articles Score: 2
Article Accessibility Score: 3
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International Category Code (ICC):
ICC-0102
Publisher: Hydrosphere. Hazard Processes And Phenomena Scientific And..
International Journal Address (IAA):
IAA.ZONE/268642738385
eISSN
:
2686 - 8385
VALID
ISSN Validator
Abstract
Development of the long-range inflow forecast system to the Bureyskaya reservoir, carried out in 2008-2010 at the request of the RusHydro Company, is presented. Estimations were performed based on terms of statistical probabilities with about month-quarter lead-time. Considering features of extreme flow formation processes and wetness of territory, the focus was warm period (June-September), which is known for its heavy rainfall events. During the investigations there were examined the dynamic-stochastic approach, based on the deterministic hydrological model with using of meteorological characteristics ensemble by weather generator as input, and inflow forecast to the reservoir in terms of probability curve based on multidimensional stochastic modeling. The project included two main stages: development of precipitation and temperature forecast method with month-six months lead-time; development of inflow probabilistic forecast method...
